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2020 President · AZ

Data Orbital · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45.9% · Republican 45.3%

D+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.9 − 45.3 = 0.60
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = 0.60 − (0.309) = 0.291
  4. Absolute miss = |0.291| = 0.291

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72632, race ID 6214 (538 database).