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2020 Senate · KY

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 911 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39.8% · Republican 51.1%

R+11.3

The certified result

Democrat 38.23% · Republican 57.77%

R+19.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.8 − 51.1 = -11.30
  2. Actual margin = 38.231 − 57.765 = -19.534
  3. Signed miss = -11.30 − (-19.534) = 8.234
  4. Absolute miss = |8.234| = 8.234

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72618, race ID 6276 (538 database).