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2020 President · WI

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53.8% · Republican 40.5%

D+13.3

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.82%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.8 − 40.5 = 13.30
  2. Actual margin = 49.450 − 48.822 = 0.628
  3. Signed miss = 13.30 − (0.628) = 12.673
  4. Absolute miss = |12.673| = 12.673

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72615, race ID 6259 (538 database).