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2020 Senate · TX

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 3,267 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.5% · Republican 46.7%

R+4.2

The certified result

Democrat 43.87% · Republican 53.51%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.5 − 46.7 = -4.20
  2. Actual margin = 43.869 − 53.508 = -9.639
  3. Signed miss = -4.20 − (-9.639) = 5.439
  4. Absolute miss = |5.439| = 5.439

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72614, race ID 6295 (538 database).