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2020 Senate · SC

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 904 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.2% · Republican 46.4%

R+2.2

The certified result

Democrat 44.17% · Republican 54.44%

R+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.2 − 46.4 = -2.20
  2. Actual margin = 44.166 − 54.437 = -10.271
  3. Signed miss = -2.20 − (-10.271) = 8.070
  4. Absolute miss = |8.070| = 8.070

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72613, race ID 6292 (538 database).