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2020 President · PA

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 2,686 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.9% · Republican 43.2%

D+8.7

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 48.84%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.9 − 43.2 = 8.70
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 48.844 = 1.164
  3. Signed miss = 8.70 − (1.164) = 7.535
  4. Absolute miss = |7.535| = 7.535

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72612, race ID 6249 (538 database).