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2020 President · OH

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 2,179 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.6% · Republican 49.2%

R+2.6

The certified result

Democrat 45.24% · Republican 53.27%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.6 − 49.2 = -2.60
  2. Actual margin = 45.239 − 53.271 = -8.032
  3. Signed miss = -2.60 − (-8.032) = 5.432
  4. Absolute miss = |5.432| = 5.432

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72611, race ID 6246 (538 database).