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2020 President · MO

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,109 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.9% · Republican 52.3%

R+9.4

The certified result

Democrat 41.41% · Republican 56.80%

R+15.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.9 − 52.3 = -9.40
  2. Actual margin = 41.409 − 56.800 = -15.391
  3. Signed miss = -9.40 − (-15.391) = 5.991
  4. Absolute miss = |5.991| = 5.991

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72609, race ID 6235 (538 database).