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2020 President · GA

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,743 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.8% · Republican 46.4%

D+2.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.8 − 46.4 = 2.40
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = 2.40 − (0.236) = 2.164
  4. Absolute miss = |2.164| = 2.164

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72605, race ID 6221 (538 database).