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2020 Senate · CO

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 727 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.5% · Republican 43.6%

D+7.9

The certified result

Democrat 53.50% · Republican 44.18%

D+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.5 − 43.6 = 7.90
  2. Actual margin = 53.499 − 44.178 = 9.321
  3. Signed miss = 7.90 − (9.321) = -1.421
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.421| = 1.421

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72603, race ID 6269 (538 database).