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2020 Senate · AZ

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,059 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.9% · Republican 44.4%

D+3.5

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.9 − 44.4 = 3.50
  2. Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
  3. Signed miss = 3.50 − (2.349) = 1.151
  4. Absolute miss = |1.151| = 1.151

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72602, race ID 6268 (538 database).