2020 Senate · AL
Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 1,045 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 56%
R+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.74% · Republican 60.09%
R+20.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 56 = -12.00
- Actual margin = 39.737 − 60.095 = -20.358
- Signed miss = -12.00 − (-20.358) = 8.359
- Absolute miss = |8.359| = 8.359
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72591, race ID 6266 (538 database).