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2020 President · AZ

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 1,195 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 47%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.309) = 2.691
  4. Absolute miss = |2.691| = 2.691

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72585, race ID 6214 (538 database).