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2020 Senate · TX

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 926 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 50%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.87% · Republican 53.51%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 50 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.869 − 53.508 = -9.639
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-9.639) = 6.639
  4. Absolute miss = |6.639| = 6.639

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72583, race ID 6295 (538 database).