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2020 President · MI

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48.8% · Republican 46.7%

D+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.8 − 46.7 = 2.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
  3. Signed miss = 2.10 − (2.784) = -0.684
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.684| = 0.684

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72509, race ID 6233 (538 database).