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2020 President · NC

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43.6% · Republican 48%

R+4.4

The certified result

Democrat 48.59% · Republican 49.93%

R+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.6 − 48 = -4.40
  2. Actual margin = 48.586 − 49.934 = -1.348
  3. Signed miss = -4.40 − (-1.348) = -3.052
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.052| = 3.052

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72497, race ID 6238 (538 database).