2020 House · NM-1
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 430 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 37%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.19% · Republican 41.81%
D+16.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 37 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 58.188 − 41.812 = 16.376
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (16.376) = 4.624
- Absolute miss = |4.624| = 4.624
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72400, race ID 8089 (538 database).