2020 President · NH
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 39%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.71% · Republican 45.36%
D+7.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 39 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 52.708 − 45.356 = 7.352
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (7.352) = 11.647
- Absolute miss = |11.647| = 11.647
The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72226, race ID 6241 (538 database).