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2020 Senate · MI

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 46.2%

D+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%

D+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 46.2 = 1.30
  2. Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
  3. Signed miss = 1.30 − (1.685) = -0.385
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.385| = 0.385

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72073, race ID 6280 (538 database).