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2020 Senate · MI

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2020-10-23 (11 days before the election) · 652 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 44%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%

D+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (1.685) = 4.315
  4. Absolute miss = |4.315| = 4.315

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72058, race ID 6280 (538 database).