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2020 House · AR-2

Impact Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 44.63% · Republican 55.37%

R+10.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.634 − 55.366 = -10.732
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-10.732) = 10.732
  4. Absolute miss = |10.732| = 10.732

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72033, race ID 7847 (538 database).