Skip to content

2020 President · national

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 811 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53.88% · Republican 43.69%

D+10.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.88 − 43.69 = 10.19
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 10.19 − (4.396) = 5.794
  4. Absolute miss = |5.794| = 5.794

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71742, race ID 6210 (538 database).