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2020 President · WI

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 1,038 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 42%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.82%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 42 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.450 − 48.822 = 0.628
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (0.628) = 11.373
  4. Absolute miss = |11.373| = 11.373

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71648, race ID 6259 (538 database).