2020 President · NC
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 1,904 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 47%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.59% · Republican 49.93%
R+1.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 48.586 − 49.934 = -1.348
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.348) = 4.348
- Absolute miss = |4.348| = 4.348
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71643, race ID 6238 (538 database).