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2020 President · MN

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 864 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 42%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.40% · Republican 45.28%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 42 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.395 − 45.285 = 7.110
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (7.110) = 1.890
  4. Absolute miss = |1.890| = 1.890

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71642, race ID 6234 (538 database).