2020 Senate · GA
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 1,672 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 46%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%
R+1.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 46 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.779) = -0.221
- Absolute miss = |-0.221| = 0.221
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71640, race ID 6271 (538 database).