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2020 President · FL

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 4,685 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 45%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 45 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (-3.359) = 10.358
  4. Absolute miss = |10.358| = 10.358

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71639, race ID 6220 (538 database).