2020 President · CO
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 788 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 39%
D+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.40% · Republican 41.90%
D+13.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 39 = 16.00
- Actual margin = 55.400 − 41.898 = 13.502
- Signed miss = 16.00 − (13.502) = 2.498
- Absolute miss = |2.498| = 2.498
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71638, race ID 6216 (538 database).