2020 Senate · MI
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 1,032 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 41%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%
D+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 41 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (1.685) = 6.315
- Absolute miss = |6.315| = 6.315
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71625, race ID 6280 (538 database).