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2020 President · AZ

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2020-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 658 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 46%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (0.309) = 3.691
  4. Absolute miss = |3.691| = 3.691

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71621, race ID 6214 (538 database).