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2020 Senate · KS

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 2,453 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 51%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.79% · Republican 53.22%

R+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 51 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.786 − 53.223 = -11.437
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-11.437) = -0.563
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.563| = 0.563

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71545, race ID 6275 (538 database).