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2020 President · KS

co/efficient · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 2,453 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 56%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.56% · Republican 56.21%

R+14.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 56 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.560 − 56.213 = -14.653
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-14.653) = -2.347
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.347| = 2.347

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71545, race ID 6227 (538 database).