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2020 President · WI

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2020-10-16 (18 days before the election) · 663 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.82%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.450 − 48.822 = 0.628
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (0.628) = 5.373
  4. Absolute miss = |5.373| = 5.373

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71380, race ID 6259 (538 database).