2020 Senate · AL
FM3 Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 801 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 47%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.74% · Republican 60.09%
R+20.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 39.737 − 60.095 = -20.358
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-20.358) = 21.359
- Absolute miss = |21.359| = 21.359
The poll overstated the Democrat by 21.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71235, race ID 6266 (538 database).