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2000 President · FL

McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2000-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 44%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.84% · Republican 48.85%

even

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 44 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.838 − 48.847 = -0.009
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-0.009) = -0.991
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.991| = 0.991

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6483, race ID 815 (538 database).