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2000 Senate · FL

McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2000-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 38%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 46.19%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 38 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.044 − 46.192 = 4.852
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (4.852) = -4.851
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.851| = 4.851

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6483, race ID 1687 (538 database).