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2002 House · GA-12

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 48%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.81% · Republican 55.19%

R+10.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 48 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.809 − 55.191 = -10.382
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-10.382) = -4.618
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.618| = 4.618

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64371, race ID 2839 (538 database).