Skip to content

2000 President · HI

Ward Research · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 261 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 31%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.79% · Republican 37.46%

D+18.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 31 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.792 − 37.463 = 18.329
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (18.329) = 0.671
  4. Absolute miss = |0.671| = 0.671

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6433, race ID 817 (538 database).