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2006 House · IN-7

Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2006-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 468 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 45%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.76% · Republican 46.24%

D+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 45 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.756 − 46.244 = 7.512
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (7.512) = -10.512
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.512| = 10.512

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64248, race ID 3743 (538 database).