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2000 President · FL

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.84% · Republican 48.85%

even

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.838 − 48.847 = -0.009
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-0.009) = 4.009
  4. Absolute miss = |4.009| = 4.009

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6424, race ID 815 (538 database).