2006 House · NM-3
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 168 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 71% · Republican 20%
D+51.0
The certified result
Democrat 74.64% · Republican 25.36%
D+49.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 71 − 20 = 51.00
- Actual margin = 74.642 − 25.358 = 49.284
- Signed miss = 51.00 − (49.284) = 1.715
- Absolute miss = |1.715| = 1.715
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64197, race ID 3849 (538 database).