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2000 House · CA-20

FM3 Research · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 38%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.35% · Republican 45.49%

D+6.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 38 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.346 − 45.492 = 6.854
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (6.854) = 4.147
  4. Absolute miss = |4.147| = 4.147

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64033, race ID 2319 (538 database).