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2003 Governor · MS

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2003-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 623 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 50%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.81% · Republican 52.59%

R+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 50 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.813 − 52.589 = -6.776
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-6.776) = 1.777
  4. Absolute miss = |1.777| = 1.777

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63934, race ID 1379 (538 database).