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2003 Governor · KY

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2003-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 52%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.96% · Republican 55.04%

R+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 52 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.964 − 55.036 = -10.072
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-10.072) = 1.072
  4. Absolute miss = |1.072| = 1.072

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63933, race ID 1376 (538 database).