2003 Governor · LA
OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2003-11-11 (4 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 45%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.95% · Republican 48.05%
D+3.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 45 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 51.949 − 48.051 = 3.898
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (3.898) = -10.898
- Absolute miss = |-10.898| = 10.898
The poll overstated the Republican by 10.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63912, race ID 1378 (538 database).