2008 House · NE-2
Impact Research · fieldwork ended 2008-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 47%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.07% · Republican 51.93%
R+3.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 48.073 − 51.927 = -3.854
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.854) = 2.853
- Absolute miss = |2.853| = 2.853
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63834, race ID 4262 (538 database).