2004 House · UT-2
Impact Research · fieldwork ended 2004-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 34%
D+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.76% · Republican 43.21%
D+11.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 34 = 23.00
- Actual margin = 54.757 − 43.214 = 11.543
- Signed miss = 23.00 − (11.543) = 11.457
- Absolute miss = |11.457| = 11.457
The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63832, race ID 3555 (538 database).