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2002 Senate · CO

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2002-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 50%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.77% · Republican 50.70%

R+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 50 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.769 − 50.696 = -4.927
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-4.927) = -1.074
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.074| = 1.074

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63815, race ID 1651 (538 database).