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2013 Senate · MA

OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2013-06-16 (9 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 40%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.80% · Republican 44.60%

D+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 40 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.800 − 44.601 = 10.199
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (10.199) = -3.199
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.199| = 3.199

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63705, race ID 1472 (538 database).