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2013 Senate · MA

McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2013-06-18 (7 days before the election) · 1,100 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.80% · Republican 44.60%

D+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.800 − 44.601 = 10.199
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (10.199) = -7.199
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.199| = 7.199

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63698, race ID 1472 (538 database).